Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.117220 0.130588 0.144435 0.159817 0.176394 0.193688 0.213061
2024-10-06 0.099115 0.119235 0.141239 0.166944 0.196000 0.227678 0.264678
2024-10-13 0.084386 0.108781 0.136769 0.170902 0.211042 0.256390 0.311122
2024-10-20 0.072796 0.099948 0.132467 0.173642 0.223720 0.281990 0.354217
2024-10-27 0.063610 0.092586 0.128676 0.175920 0.235085 0.305679 0.395160
2024-11-03 0.060741 0.092653 0.133653 0.188731 0.259257 0.345007 0.455507
2024-11-10 0.053683 0.086267 0.129579 0.189404 0.267833 0.365083 0.492553
2024-11-17 0.048577 0.081916 0.127629 0.192363 0.279006 0.388292 0.533646
2024-11-24 0.043486 0.076983 0.124357 0.193098 0.286961 0.407292 0.569556
2024-12-01 0.042117 0.077365 0.128388 0.203768 0.308208 0.443679 0.628169
2024-12-08 0.040782 0.077609 0.132108 0.213992 0.328988 0.479768 0.686963
2024-12-15 0.037112 0.073780 0.129525 0.215001 0.336990 0.498988 0.723963
2024-12-22 0.032582 0.068306 0.124400 0.212499 0.340610 0.513253 0.755921
2024-12-29 0.031357 0.068305 0.127673 0.222496 0.362189 0.552349 0.821844
2025-01-05 0.029201 0.066458 0.127904 0.227907 0.377363 0.583070 0.877222
2025-01-12 0.026884 0.064056 0.127038 0.231520 0.389944 0.610413 0.928491
2025-01-19 0.024668 0.061576 0.125823 0.234436 0.401468 0.636415 0.978291
2025-01-26 0.024946 0.063907 0.132746 0.250329 0.432543 0.690322 1.067143
2025-02-02 0.022646 0.060882 0.130321 0.251178 0.441067 0.712490 1.112513
2025-02-09 0.021008 0.059000 0.129712 0.254839 0.453822 0.740796 1.166729
2025-02-16 0.019117 0.056349 0.127529 0.255749 0.462290 0.762998 1.212640
2025-02-23 0.019071 0.057704 0.132636 0.268900 0.489891 0.813237 1.298606
2025-03-02 0.018936 0.058834 0.137344 0.281468 0.516780 0.862768 1.384109